Arjun Babu Nellikkattil

Arjun Babu Nellikkattil

he/him

I am a climate scientist passionate about developing advanced mathematical and machine learning tools to improve our understanding of the climate system and predict future changes. My current research focuses on refining climate risk assessments and informing policy decisions by providing precise, data-driven insights into future precipitation trends.

Storm Tracker

Storm Tracker is a simplified version of a powerful algorithm I developed called SCAFET (short for Scalable Feature Extraction and Tracking). While SCAFET is designed to detect and track a wide range of weather patterns in complex climate data, Storm Tracker focuses specifically on identifying and following storms in real time.

Click here to see the current storms identified by StormTracker

What is SCAFET?

At its core, SCAFET analyzes the shape of weather patterns, not just their intensity—think of it like applying a geometric filter to reveal features such as cyclones, atmospheric rivers, jet streams, and more. Unlike traditional methods, SCAFET doesn’t rely on preset thresholds or model or dataset-specific assumptions. Instead, it uses something called a shape index to figure out where interesting weather features are happening, no matter which region or dataset you’re looking at. For a full explanation of how it works, check out my article in Geoscientific Model Development or my thesis.

How does Storm Tracker work?

Storm Tracker applies the SCAFET approach to daily wind forecasts from ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The data is accessed from ECMWF Data Store (ECPDS).

Here’s how it works:

  • It reads daily wind forecasts.
  • It calculates vorticity, a measure of how much the air is spinning.
  • Then, it identifies convex cap-shaped patterns that indicate storm systems.
  • Finally, it filters out the weaker ones and highlights the strongest storms globally.

This analysis is updated every day, and the results are posted right here. The full code for this project is also freely available via GitHub. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions or feedbacks.

Disclaimer

This is a personal research project by Dr. Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, inspired by his PhD work. It’s not an operational weather forecasting tool—just a hobby and a scientific exploration. Please refer to official weather services for accurate forecasts and warnings related to extreme weather events.